Forex Analysis – January 17, 2023
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD has been reversing off the moving averages and has been bullish.
Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, so the uptrend could continue.
Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6925, 0.6880, 0.6865 and 0.6835. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6985 and 0.7015.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Up-trending?
The EURGBP has been bullish.
Price was indecisive but is now looking bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, so the upside direction may continue. EURGBP is currently in a retrace move.
Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8845and 0.8835. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8880 and 0.8895.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending
Price has been up-trending, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.
The EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.0795, 1.0760, 1.0710 and 1.0680. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.0865.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish and has started up-trending.
The GBPUSD has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside direction may continue. Price is currently in a retrace move.
Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2165, 1.2105 and 1.2080. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average, around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2235 and 1.2280.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Down-trending. Market indecision?
USDCAD has been bearish, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.
Price is down-trending but is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. The USDCAD could start ranging between 1.3335 and 1.3440.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3475, 1.3495 and 1.3525. A break to the downside could bring further downside.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision
As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCHF has been moving sideways.
Price is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9180, 0.9210, 0.9220, 0.9310, 0.9340 and 0.9395.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending
Price has been bearish.
USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downside direction could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 129.60, 130.20 and 131.30. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 127.35.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Clear uptrend
As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.
GOLD is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.
Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1885, 1879, 1870 and 1861. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1928.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
0200 UTC – CNY – GDP Growth, Industrial Production
0700 UTC – GBP – Claimant Count, Unemployment Rate
1000 UTC – EUR – German Economic Sentiment Index
1330 UTC – CAD – Inflation Rate
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.
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