Forex Analysis – January 09, 2023


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside?

AUDUSD technical chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD continues to move sideways.

Price is currently bullish but is still moving within a consolidation. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel though and AUDUSD is currently bullish, so price could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6835, 0.6780 and 0.6730. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.6880 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Ranging

EURGBP price chart
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the previous trend support area and range resistance area, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and is ranging between 0.8780 and 0.8870. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.8765 and 0.8715.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecisive

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been strongly bullish.

The EURUSD has swing higher but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0495, 1.0530, 1.0580, 1.0630, 1.0640, 1.0680, 1.0700 and 1.0710.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Potential indecision? Potential uptrend?

GBPUSD Forex analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish.

The GBPUSD was down-trending but recent price action has been very bullish. Price has swung higher and is above key resistance areas, so the downtrend may be over. GBPUSD may start up-trending or become indecisive The moving averages are currently moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1845, 1.1910, 1.2005, 1.2080, 1.2110, 1.2135, 1.2190 and 1.2215.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive

USDCAD Forex analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish, initiated by NFP, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.

Price was indecisive but is now looking bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, so the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3475, 1.3495 and 1.3525.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision

USDCHF price action analysis
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDCHF has been indecisive.

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bullish though and price action has formed higher swing lows, so the USDCHF may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9215, 0.9265, 0.9345 and 0.9400.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential upside?

USDJPY price chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

USDJPY is indecisive but is showing signs of possible upside – the moving averages are bullish and widening and price action has formed higher swing lows.

Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 131.55, 131.30, 130.20 and 129.60. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 132.70, 134.50 and 134.70.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

GOLD price action analysis
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish.

GOLD is up-trending and has formed a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1861, 1847, 1833 and 1827.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

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Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.

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