Forex Analysis – December 30, 2022

Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision. Potential upside?

AUDUSD Forex analysis — AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has found resistance around 0.6760.

Price is indecisive but is showing signs of potential upside momentum. Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6715, 0.6655 and 0.6645. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6760, 0.6770, 0.6795, 0.6805 and 0.6825.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP Forex analysis — EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently nearing recent highs. The moving averages are bullish, so the uptrend may continue. EURGBP is starting to look a little indecisive though and is struggling to swing higher, so price may start ranging.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8800, 0.8790, 0.8765 and 0.8715. A bullish move may continue to find resistance around the recent highs at 0.8860.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecisive. Potential upside?

EURUSD price chart — EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The EURUSD was ranging but recent price action has been bullish. Price is above the recent range resistance area and the moving averages are becoming bullish, so EURUSD could start up-trending. The market indecision could continue though.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0665, 1.0605 and 1.0580. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.0700.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging

GBPUSD technical analysis — GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The GBPUSD was down-trending but is now ranging. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2135, 1.2190 and 1.2220.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive

USDCAD price action analysis — USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last Forex chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways and the New Years Holidays are approaching, so the current indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3495, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3635 and 1.3680.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision

USDCHF technical analysis — USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCHF has been finding support around 0.9215.

Price is indecisive and is now ranging between 0.9215 and 0.9345. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive

USDJPY price chart — USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

USDJPY was showing signs of potential upside but is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 131.05, 131.60, 132.45, 134.70 and 135.80.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Market indecision. Potential uptrend?

XAUUSD price chart — XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish.

GOLD is indecisive but is moving within a bullish channel, signalling potential upside. The moving averages continue to move sideways though, so the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 1786, 1798, 1813, 1822 and 1825.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

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Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.

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