Forex Analysis – December 22, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision
As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack track direction. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue. The AUDUSD may start ranging between 0.6645 and 0.6730.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6645, 0.6730, 0.6740 and 0.6805.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Up-trending
Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.
EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, so the uptrend could continue.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8765, 0.8715, 0.8695 and 0.8650. EURGBP could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending but currently ranging
As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.
Price is up-trending but is currently indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0580-1.0655 and EURUSD is moving within the channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.0700. A break to the downside may find support around 1.0510 and 1.0445.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Indecision. Potential downside?
GBPUSD has been bearish.
Price was indecisive but recent price action has been bearish. The GBPUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downside direction could continue.
Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2115, 1.2190, 1.2220 and 1.2310. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.
The USDCAD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500, 1.3530, 1.3570 and 1.3705.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Down-trending. Indecision?
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The USDCHF is down-trending but has recently been indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.
Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9345, 0.9375 and 0.9430. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9245 and 0.9215.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Possible downtrend?
The USDJPY has been bullish.
Price action has formed a strong bearish move and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so price may start down-trending.
Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 133.75, 134.25, 134.70 and 135.80. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 131.05.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Market indecision. Potential upside?
GOLD has been rejected at 1822, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
Price is indecisive but is showing signs of potential upside – price action has formed higher swing highs and lows and the moving averages are bullish and widening.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1776, 1786, 1797, 1805, 1809 and 1822.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
2330 UTC – JPY – Inflation Rate
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.
Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/
Keep up-to-date with our Forex chart analysis – https://analysis.tfxi.com/
Hits: 24