Forex Analysis – December 09, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD Forex analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

AUDUSD is choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern though and is currently above the moving averages, so the current upside may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6740, 0.6750, 0.6830 and 0.6845.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

EURGBP price action
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the bearish channel resistance area.

EURGBP is choppy and indecisive but is moving within a bearish channel, suggesting potential downside. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price could start ranging between 0.8590 and 0.8640.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8640, 0.8650, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal support levels at 0.8590, 0.8560 and 0.8550.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

EURUSD price chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending but is currently moving sideways and looking indecisive. EURUSD is in a sideways retrace move. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 1.0445 and 1.0540.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0445, 1.0395, 1.0325 and 1.0300. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.0540 and 1.0590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

GBPUSD Forex chart analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, GBPUSD has reversed off the horizontal support level at 1.2165.

Price is up-trending but is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the potential market indecision. GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.2115 and 1.2225. Price action is forming a potential inverted head and shoulder pattern though, suggesting that price could attempt to swing high and continue to uptrend.

Long opportunities may exist around the shorter-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2165, 1.2115, 1.2050 and 1.1945. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2225, 1.2290 and 1.2340.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD Forex analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has reversed off 1.3690, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCAD is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3390. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.3605 and 1.3690.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Downtrend? Market indecision?

USDCHF technical analysis
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCHF is indecisive but is moving within a large bearish channel, signalling possible downside. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between 0.9370 and 0.9435.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.9330 and the bearish channel support area. A break to the upside could find resistance around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9455, 0.9485 and 0.9545.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending. End of the trend?

USDJPY technical chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been moving sideways, as suggested in previous analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The retrace move has been significant and is above the longer-term moving average, so the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00, 139.60 and 140.60. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 136.10, 135.50, 134.25 and 133.75.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 hour chart
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. XAUUSD has swung above the moving averages, so price could attempt to swing higher. The moving averages are moving sideways though, signalling potential indecision.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1781, 1767 and 1762. A bullish move could find resistance around 1803 and 1809.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1330 UTC – USD – PPI
1500 UTC – USD – Consumer Sentiment

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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