Forex Analysis – December 08, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD technical analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages continue to cross frequently and move sideways, so the market indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6740, 0.6750, 0.6830 and 0.6845.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

EURGBP price action analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed off the bearish channel resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is indecisive but continues to move within a bearish channel, signalling possible downside. The moving averages continue to suggest market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8550, 0.8560, 0.8590, 0.8640, 0.8650, 0.8650, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the horizontal support at 1.0445.

The EURUSD is up-trending but is showing signs of market indecision, suggesting that the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0445, 1.0395, 1.0325 and 1.0300. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0540 and 1.0590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

GBPUSD chart
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has bee bullish and is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and 1.2225, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are moving sideways and price is finding resistance, so upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Long opportunities could exist around the shorter-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2165, 1.2115, 1.2050 and 1.1940. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2225, 1.2290 and 1.2340.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD Forex analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3390. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3635 and 1.3690.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Downtrend? Market indecision?

USDCHF Forex chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis.

Price is looking choppy and indecisive but is moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9330, 0.9370, 0.9435, 0.9455, 0.9485 and 0.9545.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending. End of the trend?

USDJPY price chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price reversed around the trend resistance area.

USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is above the moving averages and price action has formed a number of support levels, so the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities may exist around the shorter-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00 and 139.60. A bearish move could find support around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 136.10, 135.50, 134.25 and 133.75.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1783, 1767, 1762 and 1748. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1803 and 1809.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

0030 UTC – AUD – Balance of Trade

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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