Forex Analysis – December 07, 2022

Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision

As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, price reversed around 0.6750 and has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD is indecisive but the moving averages are currently bearish and widening, signalling possible downside. Price is looking choppy.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6750, 0.6830 and 0.6845.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel and price is moving within the channel, suggesting that EURGBP could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels 0.8550, 0.8560, 0.8625, 0.8650, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, EURUSD found support around the longer-term moving average.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. EURUSD has swung below the moving averages, so upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0445, 1.0395 and 1.0325. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0540 and 1.0590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

GBPUSD found support around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending but GBPUSD has retraced below the moving averages, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2145, 1.2050, 1.1940 and 1.1910. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2225, 1.2290 and 1.2340.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDCAD is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, so the uptrend may continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3635, 1.3500 and 1.3390.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Downtrend? Market indecision?

Price has been bearish and has found support around 0.9385, as suggested in our last analysis.

USDCHF is looking choppy and indecisive but has been down-trending within a large bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9330, 0.9385, 0.9435, 0.9455, 0.9485 and 0.9545.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending. End of the trend?

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, USDJPY has found support around the longer-term moving average.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The USDJPY is above the moving averages and the moving averages are crossing bullish, so the downtrend may be over.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00, 139.60 and 140.60. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 135.50, 134.25 and 133.75.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

XAUUSD has failed to swing higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

GOLD is up-trending but price is below the moving averages, signalling that the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages have crossed bearish – confirming the lack of upside.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1740, 1748, 1762, 1767, 1783, 1803 and 1807.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

0030 UTC – AUD – Balance of Trade

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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