Forex Analysis – December 02, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD Forex chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis, price found support around 0.6780 and has since been bullish.

AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6780, 0.6745, 0.6680 and 0.6635. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.6830.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

EURGBP Forex analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a swing lower, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive but has formed a bearish channel, signalling that price could move lower. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8550, 0.8575, 0.8615, 0.8650, 0.8665 and 0.8690.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecisive. Potential uptrend?

EURUSD technical analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

Price was indecisive but has recently moved above the consolidation resistance area, suggesting potential upside. The moving averages are bullish and widening and price action has formed a bullish channel – confirming the possible uptrend.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0475, 1.0445, 1.0395 and 1.0300. The EURUSD may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD price action analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD moved above 1.2145 and has since swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2145, 1.2050, 1.1940 and 1.1910. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2290.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD chart
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, price has failed to swing higher.

The USDCAD was up-trending but has become indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3305, 1.3320, 1.3400, 1.3445, 1.3500 and 1.3635.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Downtrend?

USDCHF chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF was ranging and indecisive but recent price action has been bearish. Price is below the recent range consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, so USDCHF could start down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9385, 0.9410, 0.9485, 0.9545 and 0.9595. USDCHF could find support around the bearish channel support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending

USDJPY Forex chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently forming a swing a lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 137.70 and 137.90.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

GOLD analysis
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1783 and 1762. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 1803.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1330 UTC – CAD – Unemployment Rate
1330 UTC – USD – Unemployment Rate, Non Farm Payrolls

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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