Forex Analysis – December 01, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Uptrend?

AUDUSD technical analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

Price was indecisive but has swung above the range resistance area, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bullish – confirming the possible upside.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.6780, 0.6745, 0.6680 and 0.6635.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

EURGBP price action
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price was down-trending but is currently indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has swung below a symmetrical triangle support area and range support area, so EURGBP may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the previous support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8575, 0.8615, 0.8650, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecisive

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the indecision could continue. Price is currently ranging between 1.0300 and 1.0475.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. Potential indecision?

GBPUSD chart analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action is looking sideways though and the moving averages are also sideways, so price may become indecisive. If GBPUSD moves above the highs at 1.2145, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1780, 1.1910, 1.1940, 1.2050 and 1.2145.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

USDCAD technical analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, USDCAD found support around 1.3500.

Price has since been bearish though and has swung below the level of support. USDCAD is up-trending but the current retrace move has been strong and is below key support levels, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are tightening and have started moving sideways, so price could become indecisive.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3415, 1.3320 and 1.3305. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3565.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Ranging

USDCHF chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is now looking indecisive again. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9385-0.9595 and the USDCHF is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending

USDJPY Forex analysis
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish.

USDJPY is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00, 139.60 and 140.60. The USDJPY could reverse off the bearish channel support area.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive. Possible upside?

GOLD price action chart
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis.

GOLD is indecisive but is currently above the recent range, signalling a possible uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside. XAUUSD may form a much large range at 1732-1783.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1762, 1748, 1740 and 1732. GOLD may find resistance around 1783.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1000 UTC – EUR – Unemployment Rate
1330 UTC – USD – Personal Spending
1500 UTC – USD – Manufacturing PMI

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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