Forex Analysis – November 30, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Ranging

AUDUSD price chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD is clear indecisive and ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6585 and 0.6780. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Consolidating

EURGBP technical analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is moving within a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. The moving averages are current bullish, signalling a possible bullish break-out.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the triangle (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8665, 0.8690, 0.8705 and 0.8770. A break to the downside could find support around 0.8610 and 0.8575.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecisive

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.

Price was ranging but has broken the range support area. Price action is still looking indecisive, despite the bearish break-out. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0225, 1.0280, 1.0310, 1.0395, 1.0445 and 1.0475

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. Potential indecision?

GBPUSD Forex analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD reversed around the moving averages and has failed to swing higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting potential downside.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any o the horizontal levels at 1.1725, 1.1765, 1.1780, 1.1935, 1.2050 and 1.2145.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD chart
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3415. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3565 and 1.3635.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Ranging

USDCHF Price action chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The USDCHF continues to move within a large range at 0.9385-0.9595. Price action has formed a higher swing low though and the moving averages are currently bullish, so price could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential downside?

USDJPY Forex analysis

The USDJPY has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price action is choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price has formed a bearish channel and is below the recent consolidation area, so USDJPY may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00, 139.60, 140.60 and 142.15.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive and ranging

GOLD
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, GOLD has been moving sideways.

Price is clearly indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1740-1761 and XAUUSD is ranging within the channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1770 and 1783. A break to the downside could find support around 1732, 1715 and 1703.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1000 UTC – EUR – Euro Inflation Rate
1315 UTC – USD – ADP Employment Change
1330 UTC – USD – GBP Growth Rate
1500 UTC – USD – Job Openings
1830 UTC – USD – Fed Chair Speech
0500 UTC – JPY – Consumer Confidence

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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