Forex Analysis – November 29, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision
As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways.
Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue. AUDUSD is ranging between 0.6585 and 0.6780.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.6545 and 0.6390.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecision
The EURGBP has become indecisive, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.
Price was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern and the moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the triangle pattern, if EURGBP moves out of the triangle (break-out trade) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8575, 0.8610, 0.8630, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Ranging
As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The EURUSD swung above the range resistance area but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue. Price is now ranging between 1.0335 and 1.0475.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.0280, 1.0225 and 1.0095.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?
Price has reversed around 1.1935, as suggested in our last chart analysis.
The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently n a retrace move. The moving averages have crossed bearish and price is below the moving averages, so upside momentum may be weakening – price may struggle to swing higher.
Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1935, 1.1780 and 1.1765. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 1.2145.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive. Potential upside?
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.
Price is indecisive. Price action has formed a slight bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so USDCAD could become bullish.
Trading opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3305, 1.3320, 1.3415, 1.3495, 1.3500 and 1.3565.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision
USDCHF has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis.
Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.9385 and 0.9595. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential downside?
As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price found resistance around the longer-term moving average and has been bearish.
USDJPY is indecisive but is showing signs of potential downside – the moving averages are bearish, price action is below a recent consolidation area and price has formed a tight bearish channel. If price moves below 137.70, the USDJPY could attempt a bearish move lower.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 137.70, 138.10, 139.00, 139.60, 140.60 and 142.15.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.
GOLD is indecisive and is ranging between 1732 and 1761. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if XAUUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1770 and 1783. A break to the downside may find support around 1715, 1703 and 1681.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
1300 UTC – EUR – German inflation rate
1330 UTC – CAD – Canadian Q3 GDP growth
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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