Forex Analysis – November 24, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, the USD news brought new direction to this pair.
AUDUSD was showing signs of a potential downtrend but recent price action has been bullish. Overall, price is looking indecisive and is ranging between 0.6585-0.6780. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing. If AUDUSD closes above 0.6780, price may become bullish.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6585, 0.6635, 0.6720 and 0.6780.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Down-trending
Price has been bearish and has found support around the channel support area and horizontal level at 0.8590, as suggested in our last analysis.
EURGBP is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downtrend could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8635, 0.8690 and 0.8705. A bearish move could find support around 0.8590.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Ranging
As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USD news brought different direction to this currency pair.
Price was showing signs of downside momentum but is now looking indecisive. EURUSD is ranging between 1.0225 and 1.0445. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support).
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending
GBPUSD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.
Price was ranging but is now bullish. Price action is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside momentum could continue.
Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1965, 1.1935 and 1.1765.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, the major USD news brought different direction to this currency pair.
The USDCAD was showing signs of a possible uptrend but is now looking indecisive. Price action is sideways and the moving averages are also moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3305, 1.3415, 1.3495, 1.3545 and 1.3565.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision
Price is moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
The USDCHF is indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9385-0.9595. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential downside?
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, the major USD news brought new direction to this pair.
Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The USDJPY is potentially ranging between 138.45-142.35. If price closes below the range support area, price action may become bearish.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 138.45, 139.30, 140.60 and 142.35.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecision?
GOLD has been bullish.
Price was showing signs of potential downside but recent price action has been bullish. XAUUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1703, 1715, 1732, 1748, 1756, 1770 and 1783.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.
There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown
Today’s Major Scheduled News
n/a
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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