Forex Analysis – November 22, 2022

Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Down-trending

As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, price has been bearish.

AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a short retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downtrend may continue. Higher time-frames are providing mixed directional signals.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.6635, 0.6720 and 0.6780. A bearish move may find support around 0.6545, 0.6485 and 0.6450.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Down-trending

Price has been bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area, as suggested in our previous analysis.

EURGBP is down-trending and is currently forming a new swing low. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downside direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8690, 0.8705 and 0.8770. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8625 and 0.8590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Down-trend?

EURUSD has been bullish.

Price was up-trending but has recently formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a possible downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside. The EURUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, so price may become bullish and swing higher.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0280, 1.0310, 1.0390 and 1.0440. A bearish move may find support around 1.0225, 1.0095 and 1.0035.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, GBPUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is ranging between 1.1765 and 1.1965. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1725 and 1.1590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3390, 1.3305 and 1.3240. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3495, 1.3545, 1.3565 and 1.3590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Up-trending?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish.

The USDCHF has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, so price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9505 and 0.9485.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Up-trending

The USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is up-trending and is in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue. USDJPY is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 140.60 and 139.30. A bullish move may find resistance around 142.35 and 145.25.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Potential downside?

As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1756, 1770 and 1783. A bearish move could find support around 1715 and 1703.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

n/a

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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