Forex Analysis – November 18, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average.
AUDUSD is up-trending but the current retrace move is below the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so AUDUSD may become indecisive. Price action is forming a potential range at 0.6635-0.6780.
Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6635, 0.6545 and 0.6515. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.6780.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Ranging
Price has been finding support around the range support area, as suggested in our last analysis.
EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price is ranging between 0.8690-0.8820. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The EURGBP could be forming a second tighter range at 0.8705-0.8770.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8650 and 0.8625.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Ranging
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways and is ranging.
Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0280-1.0440 and price is ranging within the channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (beak-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.0095 and 1.0035.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?
GBPUSD has failed to swing higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
Price is up-trending but is starting to look indecisive. Current price action is below the diagonal support area and the moving averages are moving sideways, so the uptrend could becoming to an end. The GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.1765-1.1965.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1590, 1.1615, 1.1725, 1.1765 and 1.1965. Buying opportunities may exist if price moves above 1.1965.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Continuation of downtrend? Market indecision?
As suggested in our last Forex analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price is looking indecisive though. The moving averages are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue. If USDCAD moves back below the moving averages, the downtrend may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3390, 1.3475 and 1.3545.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Potential upside?
Price moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.
The USDCHF was ranging but has recently been bullish. Price is above the consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside momentum could continue.
Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9485 and 0.9385.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Ranging
As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, the USDJPY has reversed off the range resistance area.
Price is indecisive and is ranging between 138.45 and 140.60. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 142.35 and 145.25.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecision
GOLD has been moving sideways and is ranging, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.
Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways, XAUUSD is ranging between 1756 and 1783 but price action could be forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern, suggesting potential downside.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1715 and 1703.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.
There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown
Today’s Major Scheduled News
1500 UTC – USD – Existing Home Sales
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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