Forex Analysis – November 17, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around 0.6780.
Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside momentum could continue.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6705, 0.6665 and 0.6545. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.6780.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Ranging. Potential downside?
The EURGBP is currently finding support around the range support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.8690-0.8820. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a diagonal resistance area, so EURGBP may break below the range support area.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the diagonal resistance area and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.8685, 0.8650, 0.8625 and 0.8590.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. Potential range?
As suggested in our previous analysis, price has failed to swing higher.
The EURUSD is up-trending but price action has formed a potential horizontal channel at 1.0280-1.0440, signalling potential market indecision. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, so the upside momentum could continue.
Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal channel support at 1.0280. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?
Price has been bullish and has found resistance around 1.1965, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.
The GBPUSD is up-trending and is in a retrace move. Price is currently struggling to swing higher, so upside momentum may be weakening. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, suggesting further upside.
Buying opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1820, 1.1725, 1.1615 and 1.1590. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1.1965.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Continuation of downtrend? Market indecision?
As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD has found resistance around the trend resistance area.
Price was ranging but is now above the range resistance area. Price action is looking sideways and indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDCAD is down-trending longer-term and is currently in a retrace move.
Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3325, 1.3390, 1.3475, 1.3545, 1.3565 and 1.3590.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Ranging
USDCHF has been moving sideways and has formed a clear range, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.
Price was down-trending but is now ranging between 0.9385 and 0.9485. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around any of the key Fib levels.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Ranging
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
USDJPY was down-trending but is now ranging between 138.45 and 140.60. The moving averages are still bearish though, suggesting that price could start down-trending again.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 142.35 and 145.25.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending. Possible indecision?
Price has been retracing, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
GOLD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. XAUUSD is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. GOLD may start ranging between 1756 and 1783.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and around the moving averages. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1715 and 1703.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.
There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown
Today’s Major Scheduled News
1230 UTC – GBP – Autumn Statement
1330 UTC – USD – Housing Stats, Building Permits
2330 UTC – JPY – Inflation YOY
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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