Forex Analysis – November 11, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the US CPI released has provided market direction.
Price has been bullish and is forming a swing higher, so the AUDUSD is up-trending. Price action is currently making highs. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.
Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6510, 0.6485 and 0.6450.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Up-trending. Market indecision?
The EURGBP reversed off the 0.8705 horizontal level, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price is up-trending but has swung below both moving averages and trend support area, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend could be over. EURGBP is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8625, 0.8650, 0.8685, 0.8690, 0.8700, 0.8735, 0.8755, 0.8780 and 0.8820.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in our previous analysis, US CPI has brought direction to this pair.
The EURUSD is up-trending – price action has formed higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue.
Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0095 and 1.0035.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending
The US CPI release has given clear market direction to this pair, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.
The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.
Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1635, 1.1615, 1.1590 and 1.1535.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Down-trending
As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD has been bearish and has swung lower.
Price is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downtrend could continue.
Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1390, 1.3475, 1.3545 and 1.3590.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Down-trending
USDCHF has been bearish, as suggested in our last Forex chart analysis.
Price is down-trending. USDCHF is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction may continue.
Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9825 and 0.9875.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.
USDJPY is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downside direction could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 142.35, 145.25 and 146.80.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending
Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis.
GOLD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. XAUUSD is testing key resistance on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price may become bearish.
Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1715, 1703 and 1681.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.
There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown
Today’s Major Scheduled News
0700 UTC – GBP – GDP Growth
1500 UTC – USD – Consumer Sentiment
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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