TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 16, 2022
Welcome to our Forex chart analysis for September 16, 2022!
Our previous analysis… Click here
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market Indecision. Potential downside?
The AUDUSD has been bearish.
Price is indecisive but recent price action has been bearish. AUDUSD is currently below the recent consolidation area, so price may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.
Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6710, 0.6770 and 0.6825.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Up-trending
The EURGBP has been bullish.
Price was indecisive and showing some downside but recent price action has been bullish and has swung higher – EURGBP is up-trending again. The moving averages are crossing bullish, so the upside direction could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8715, 0.8705, 0.8685 and 0.8555.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Indecision
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The EURUSD is indecisive. Price is ranging and has forming a horizontal channel at 0.9960-1.0010, so the market indecision may continue. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. But EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential downside move.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.0030, 1.0065 and 1.0110. A break to the downside may find support around 0.9955, 0.9915 and 0.9875.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible downside?
Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
The GBPUSD is indecisive but price is testing the consolidation lows, so GBPUSD could start down-trending again. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the possible downside. But price could reverse around the consolidation support area and continue to be indecisive.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1580 and 1.1600. If GBPUSD closes below 1.1410, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending
As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD closed above 1.3200 and has since been bullish.
Price was indecisive but has recently been bullish. USDCAD is above the recent consolidation area, so price may start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the possible trend.
Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200, 1.3140 and 1.3095.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision. Possible upside?
USDCHF has been moving sideways and has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.
Price is indecisive but has formed an inverted head and shoulder price pattern, so there could be an upside move. The moving averages continue to suggest indecision though – they are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9485, 0.9555, 0.9660, 0.9700, 0.9725, 0.9750 and 0.9750.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Ranging
As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
USDJPY was up-trending but is now ranging within a clear horizontal channel at 141.65-144.95. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways, confirming the current indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 140.55 and 139.90.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Down-trending
Price has been bearish, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.
GOLD was indecisive but is down-trending again. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend could continue. XAUUSD has closed below key support on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside could continue.
Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1692, 1706 and 1712.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.
Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.
Ukraine has taken significant ground from Russia.
The BOJ may intervene in the markets to strengthen the Yen.
Today’s Major Scheduled News
1400 UTC – USD – Consumer sentiment
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.
The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.
The recent US CPI figure indicates that the Fed could do another large rate hike.
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