Our previous Forex analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/09/14/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-14-2022/
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
AUDUSD continues to look indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are moving sideways and providing no clear trend direction, so the market indecision could continue. If AUDUSD can close below the 0.6700 support area, price could start down-trending again.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6710, 0.6770, 0.6825 and 0.6915.
Price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
EURGBP has swung below the recent consolidation area, so price may become bearish. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. But price actin continues to look indecisive and has formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8545, 0.8570, 0.8610, 0.8655, 0.8685, 0.8705 and 0.8715.
As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.
Since the recent US CPI figure, price has been indecisive and has been lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are providing no clear trend direction, so the current indecision could continue. But the EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, so price could become bearish.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9875, 0.9915, 0.9955, 1.0010, 1.0030, 1.0065 and 1.0110.
GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue. But GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, so price may become bearish.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1655 and 1.1740.
As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The USDCAD is indecisive after forming a large bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening though, so price could become bullish. If USDCAD moves above the key resistance and psychological level at 1.3200, price could attempt a bullish move higher.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3095, 1.3140 and 1.3200.
Price has been slightly bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.
The USDCHF is indecisive but is forming a potential inverted head and shoulder price pattern, so there may be some upside. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish. But price is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9485, 0.9560, 0.9660, 0.9700, 0.9725 and 0.9750.
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.
Price is up-trending but has failed to swing higher, so the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. The USDJPY could start ranging between 141.65-144.95 but price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, so the USDJPY may continue it’s uptrend.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the identified diagonal area and around 140.55 and 139.90.
GOLD has been bearish.
Price was indecisive but recent price action has been bearish. XAUUSD is below the recent consolidation area, so GOLD may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the possible downtrend – they are bearish and widening.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1692, 1706 and 1712.
Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.
Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.
Ukraine has taken significant ground from Russia.
The BOJ may intervene in the markets to strengthen the Yen.
1230 UTC – USD – Retail sales, manufacturing index
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.
The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.
The recent US CPI figure indicates that the Fed could do another large rate hike.
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