TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 14, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/09/13/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-13-2022/

Technical Analysis

FOREX: AUDUSD – Indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but recent price action has been very bearish. AUDUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. If price closes below the 0.6700 support area, the AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6720, 0.6770 and 0.6825.

FOREX: EURGBP – Market indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the EURGBP found support around 0.8655 and has been moving sideways.

Price was up-trending but the EURGBP is now indecisive. Price action is forming a clear horizontal channel at 0.8655-0.8715, so the market indecision could continue. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8610, 0.8570 and 0.8545.

FOREX: EURUSD – Indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The EURUSD has formed a large bearish move. Price is currently bearish but is looking overall indecisive. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9875, 0.9915, 0.9955, 1.0030, 1.0065, 1.0110 and 1.0180.

FOREX: GBPUSD – Market indecision?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The GBPUSD was forming a higher swing high and signalling possible upside but recent price action has been very bearish. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1555, 1.1600, 1.1655 and 1.1740.

FOREX: USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bullish.

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are crossing again, so the market indecision may continue. The USDCAD is moving within a large consolidation area at 1.2900-1.3200. If price closes above the 1.3200 area, USDCAD may attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2955, 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3095, 1.3145, 1.3170 and 1.3195.

FOREX: USDCHF – Market indecision. Possible upside?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF found resistance around the longer-term moving average.

Price was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action could be forming an inverted head and shoulder reversal pattern, so the USDCHF could become bullish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9485, 0.9560, 0.9620, 0.9660, 0.9700 and 0.9725.

FOREX: USDJPY – Up-trending. Indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is up-trending but has failed to swing higher, so the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. USDJPY may start ranging between 141.65-144.95. But price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, so the USDJPY may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 144.95, 143.30, 141.65, 140.55 and 139.90.

METALS: XAUUSD – Indecisive

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, price continues to be indecisive.

XAUUSD is looking choppy and is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently and price is around mid-range, so the indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1692, 1706, 1712, 1730, 1734 and 1740.

Fundamental Analysis

Key FX Analysis

Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.

Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.

Ukraine has taken significant ground from Russia.

The BOJ may intervene in the markets to strengthen the Yen.

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1230 UTC – USD – PPI
2245 UTC – NZD – GDP
0130 UTC – AUD – Employment change and unemployment rate

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.

The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The recent US CPI figure indicates that the Fed could do another large rate hike.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/

Hits: 3