TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 13, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/09/12/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-12-2022/

Technical Analysis

FOREX: AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

AUDUSD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend could continue. But AUDUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move lower.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6825, 0.6770 and 0.6720. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around any of the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6900, 0.6955 and 0.6990.

FOREX: EURGBP – Up-trending. Market indecision?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around 0.8660, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action is starting to look sideways, so price may become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways. The EURGBP may start ranging and form a horizontal channel at 0.8655-0.8715.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support and even become bullish off the horizontal levels at 0.8610, 0.8570, 0.8545 and 0.8525.

FOREX: EURUSD – Up-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, EURUSD has formed a swing higher.

Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – price is up-trending. EURUSD is above a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside direction could continue. But price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames and is testing a higher time-frame resistance area, suggesting possible downside.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0105, 1.0065, 1.0030 and 0.9975. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0190.

FOREX: GBPUSD – Uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is forming a large bullish move above key resistance levels, so the GBPUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the possible trend – they are bullish and widening. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1655, 1.1600, 1.1555 and 1.1480. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.1740 and 1.1860.

FOREX: USDCAD – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower.

The USDCAD is moving within a large consolidation area but is currently bearish and forming lower swing highs and swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downside direction could continue. But price continues to look indecisive overall.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2900, 1.2915, 1.2955, 1.2970, 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3095 and 1.3145.

FOREX: USDCHF – Down-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has moved lower, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF is down-trending. Price action is currently forming a lower swing low, so the downtrend may continue. The moving averages confirm the downside – they are bearish. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames, suggesting that the USDCHF may become indecisive.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9560, 0.9620 and 0.9660.

FOREX: USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average and diagonal resistance area.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. But the USDJPY is finding resistance and could struggle to swing higher, so the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 138.90, 139.90, 140.55, 141.65, 143.45, 144.30 and 144.95.

METALS: XAUUSD – Indecisive. Potential upside?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.

XAUUSD has been choppy and indecisive but recent price action has been bullish. Price has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside momentum may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1712, 1706 and 1692. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1729, 1734, 1740 and 1744.

Fundamental Analysis

Key FX Analysis

Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.

Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.

Ukraine has taken significant ground from Russia.

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1330 UTC – USD – CPI figures m/m

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.

The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

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