TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 12, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/09/09/intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-09-2022/

Technical Analysis

FOREX: AUDUSD – Potential uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD has failed to swing lower and has been bullish.

Price was down-trending but the downtrend is now over – AUDUSD is bullish and is forming a higher swing high. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, so price may start up-trending. The AUDUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames though.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6875, 0.6825 and 0.6770. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.6900, 0.6955 and 0.6990.

FOREX: EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8665 and has since been bullish, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending. EURGBP is currently forming a swing higher, so the uptrend could continue. But the moving average are suggesting indecision – they are moving sideways. Price continues to be indecisive on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8705, 0.8660, 0.8610 and 0.8570.

FOREX: EURUSD – Possible uptrend?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has broken above the range resistance area and has been bullish.

The EURUSD was indecisive and ranging but recent price action has been very bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area, so EURUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the possible uptrend – they are bullish and widening. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames though, so EURUSD may become bearish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0105, 1.0065, 1.0030 and 0.9975.

FOREX: GBPUSD – Uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has failed to swing lower, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.

The GBPUSD is currently bullish and is forming a higher swing high, so price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish. GBPUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, so price could start down-trending again.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1655, 1.1600 and 1.1480. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.1740 and 1.1860.

FOREX: USDCAD – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows but price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are currently bearish but have been crossing frequently over the last few weeks – signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2900, 1.2915, 1.2955, 1.2955, 1.2975, 1.2985, 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3095 and 1.3145.

FOREX: USDCHF – Downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, USDCHF has been bearish.

Price has formed a large bearish move below key support levels, so the USDCHF could start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the possible downtrend. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9660, 0.9695, 0.9725 and 0.9750. USDCHF could find support around the recent swing low at 0.9560.

FOREX: USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the moving averages and diagonal resistance area, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. But price is finding resistance and may struggle to swing higher, so the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages have crossed and are tight, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 139.90, 140.55, 141.65, 143.45, 144.30 and 144.95.

METALS: XAUUSD – Indecisive

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price has been moving sideways.

GOLD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum, so price could continue to move sideways. XAUUSD has formed higher swing highs though, signalling that price could start up-trending.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1692, 1706, 1712, 1724, 1729, 1740 and 1744.

Fundamental Analysis

Key FX Analysis

Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.

Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.

Ukraine has taken significant ground from Russia.

Today’s Major Scheduled News

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Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.

The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

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