Our previous Forex analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/09/08/intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-08-2022/
Global inflation, a European energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a 2023 global recession are driving the markets.
Recent government intervention with energy prices may help to reduce rising inflation.
1230 UTC – CAD – Employment change and unemployment rate
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 2.35% – the third consecutive 50-bps hike. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.
The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-15 bps).
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.
As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, price has been finding resistance around 0.6830.
AUDUSD has been down-trending within a bearish channel but recent price action has been bullish. Price has swung above the bearish channel resistance area and is forming a higher swing high – downside momentum could be weakening, so the downtrend could be over. The moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bullish.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area, around the identified diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6700, 0.6720, 0.6770, 0.6830, 0.6845, 0.6900 and 0.6955.
Price has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
EURGBP is up-trending. Price is currently forming a swing higher and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue. But EURGBP continues to be around key resistance on higher time-frames, signalling a possible downside move.
Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8665, 0.8610 and 0.8570. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.8705.
As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area.
Price is indecisive and is ranging between 0.9875-1.0070. Recent price action has been bullish and has lifted the boundary of the range, so upside momentum could be building – the EURUSD could break above the range resistance area. The moving averages confirm this – they are currently bullish and widening.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9915, 0.9955, 0.9975 and 1.0030.
GBPUSD has failed to swing lower, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.
Price has been clearly down-trending. Recent price action has been sideways though, so the downtrend may becoming to an end. GBPUSD may start ranging between 1.1410 and 1.1600. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the potential indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1655, 1.1740 and 1.1860.
Price has been bearish.
The USDCAD has swung below the recent consolidation area, so price could start down-trending. But price continues to look choppy and indecisive overall, signalling that the market indecision could continue.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2900, 1.2955, 1.2975, 1.3015, 1.3080, 1.3095, 1.3170 and 1.3195.
As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.
After a clear uptrend, the USDCHF is forming a large bearish move and a lower swing low, signalling that price may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they are bearish and widening. But USDCHF continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.
Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9660, 0.9700, 0.9725, 0.9750, 0.9765 and 0.9785. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9615 and 0.9595.
The USDJPY has been bearish.
Price is obviously up-trending. USDJPY has entered an expected retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bullish and price is still up-trending on higher time-frames, so the USDJPY could continue to uptrend on the 1 hour chart.
Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 140.55, 139.90 and 138.90. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 143.45, 144.30 and 144.95.
As suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the range resistance area.
Price continues to be indecisive but is currently attempting a move above the resistance area, so XAUUSD may start up-trending. Price action confirms the possible further upside – GOLD has formed a higher swing low and diagonal support area. The moving averages continue to signal indecision though – they have been crossing frequently.
Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1706 and 1692. A bullish move may find resistance around 1724, 1730, 1740, 1744 and 1763.
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