TriumphFX Interday Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – August, September, October 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/28/triumphfx-forex-analysis-usd-pairs-april-may-june-2022/

AUDUSD Analysis – Daily Chart – Down-trending

AUDUSD reversed around 0.7600, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price was indecisive but is now down-trending – price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move and is testing the daily moving averages. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7280, 0.7530 and 0.7590. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6865 and 0.6730.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

EURUSD Analysis – Daily Chart – Clearly down-trending. Potential upside?

As suggested in our previous analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and horizontal level at 1.1140 and has continued down-trending.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower lows and lower highs. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. EURUSD is currently in a retrace move and is testing the bearish channel resistance area. The downtrend has become very clear and obvious, suggesting that price may soon become bullish. The moving averages continue to be bearish and widening though, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, and around the horizontal levels at 1.0375, 1.0775, 1.1160 and 1.1460. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0020 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

GBPUSD Analysis – Daily Chart – Clear uptrend. Possible upside?

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish and has continued to downtrend.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The downtrend has become very clear and obvious and recent price action has swung above the trend resistance area, signalling that the GBPUSD could be due some upside.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2255, 1.2345, 1.2640, 1.3000 and 1.3270. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the recent swing low at 1.1840.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

USDCAD Analysis – Daily Chart – Up-trending

Price closed above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

USDCAD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady and USDCAD has formed a bullish channel, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Price is currently in a retrace phase and is testing the longer-term moving average. The USDCAD is looking a little choppy, suggesting that price could become indecisive.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2530, 1.2470 and 1.2325. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2940, 1.3040 and 1.3110.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

USDCHF Analysis – Daily Chart – Market indecision. Potential downtrend?

As suggested in our last analysis, USDCHF became bullish and is now indecisive, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is indecisive but has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price action has also formed a bearish channel, strengthening the possibility of a downtrend. The moving averages confirm the current indecision though – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9035, 0.9090, 0.9150, 0.9230, 0.9350, 0.9415, 0.9550, 0.9830 and 1.0030.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

USDJPY Analysis – Daily Chart – Clearly up-trending

Price has been bullish and has continued to uptrend, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDJPY is clearly up-trending. Price is in a retrace move and is testing the shorter-term moving average. The daily moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price action has formed a potential trend support area.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the potential trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 131.35, 130.75 and 126.65. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 138.90.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

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