TriumphFX Interday Forex Analysis – GBP Pairs – August, September, October 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/24/triumphfx-forex-analysis-gbp-pairs-april-may-june-2022/

EURGBP Analysis – Daily Chart – Indecisive

EURGBP Daily Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways.

Price was down-trending but has recently been indecisive and has been moving sideways. EURGBP is looking choppy and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8230, 0.8275, 0.8360, 0.8470, 0.8590, 0.8650 and 0.8690.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

GBPCHF Analysis – Daily Chart – Down-trending

GBPCHF Daily Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, the GBPCHF reversed off the trend resistance area and has been bearish.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1525, 1.1750, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2420.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

GBPJPY Analysis – Daily Chart – Up-trending. End of the trend?

GBPJPY Daily Chart

Price reversed off the longer-term moving average and has been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

GBPJPY is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move and is testing the longer-term moving average. The most recent swing high was only slightly higher than the previous one, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages suggest potential market indecision – they are starting to tighten.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 158.10, 157.50 and 157.00. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 161.00, 165.80, 167.15 and 168.50.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

GBPUSD Analysis – Daily Chart – Clear Downtrend. Possible upside?

GBPUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish and has continued to downtrend.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The downtrend has become very clear and obvious and recent price action has swung above the trend resistance area, signalling that the GBPUSD could be due some upside.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2255, 1.2345, 1.2640, 1.3000 and 1.3270. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the recent swing low at 1.1840.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

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