TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 04, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/07/01/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-july-01-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has formed a swing lower.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6910, 0.6960 and 0.6990. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.6770.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The RBA will announce the official cash rate and release a rate statement at 0430 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and has been moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are are tight, crossing frequently and moving sideways. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8520, 0.8565, 0.8640, 0.8670 and 0.8720.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential downside?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging between 1.0380 and 1.0600. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that EURUSD could move lower. If price closes below the range support area, the EURUSD could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0380, 1.0390 and 1.0485.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2180 and 1.2320. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2000 and 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Market indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways and has become indecisive.

Price is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2825, 1.2845, 1.2865, 1.2915, 1.2950, 1.3015 and 1.3070.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Indecision. Potential upside?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has become indecisive, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price was down-trending but is now moving sideways. Price action has yet to form a clear range or horizontal channel. The moving averages are slightly bullish and USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9505, 0.9535, 0.9630, 0.9675, 0.9690 and 0.9725.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

USDJPY is indecisive and has formed a tight range at 134.90-135.65. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 135.95, 136.65 and 137.00. A break to the downside could find support around 134.50, 134.30 and 133.60.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price is down-trending.

XAUUSD has swung lower and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price continues to be below a key consolidation support area, adding confidence that GOLD may continue to move lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1823, 1831, 1840 and 1845. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1790.

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