TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 01, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/30/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-30-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price moved below 0.6860 and has since been bearish.

AUDUSD was indecisive after forming a downtrend. Price is now looking bearish again though and is down-trending again. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The AUDUSD is looking bearish on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6910, 0.6960 and 0.6990.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 0.8565 and has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8520, 0.8565, 0.8640, 0.8655 and 0.8715.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

A European flash CPI figure will be announced at 0900 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential downside?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has reversed around 1.0485 and has been bearish.

Price continues to look indecisive but is showing downside momentum – price action is below a recent consolidation and is forming a lower swing high. The moving averages also confirm potential downside – they are bearish and widening. The EURUSD may continue to be indecisive though.

Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0380, 1.0485 and 1.0600.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

A European flash CPI figure will be announced at 0900 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD reversed around 1.2180 and has since been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. The GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frams.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2180 and 1.2320. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2110, 1.2055 and 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Down-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area.

The USDCAD is down-trending and has formed a large bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace move and is testing the bearish channel resistance area. USDCAD is starting to look a little indecisive – price has been moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2920, 1.3015 and 1.3070. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2845 and 1.2825.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. End of the trend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending within a well-established bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace move. The bearish channel resistance area has been tested many times, signalling a potential break of the channel. The moving averages are suggesting market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9505, 0.9535, 0.9600, 0.9625, 0.9675, 0.9690 and 0.9725.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames and is due a bearish move (potential down-trend on the 1 hour time-frame).

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 133.60, 134.30, 134.50, 135.55, 135.95, 136.65 and 137.00.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending after consolidating for several weeks. XAUUSD is currently forming a swing lower. Price is attempting a move out of the consolidation area, suggesting that the start of a longer-term downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1807, 1815, 1823, 1831 and 1840.

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