TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 30, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/29/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-29-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD broke below the range support area and then reversed around 0.6860.

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways, after forming a downtrend. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. AUDUSD is testing recent lows at 0.6860. If price moves below 0.6860, the AUDUSD could start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6960, 0.6990, 0.7030 and 0.7060.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. EURGBP is moving sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a diagonal support area, suggesting that EURGBP may attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8520, 0.8565, 0.8610, 0.8640, 0.8655 and 0.8715.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

The EURUSD is indecisive. Price is below a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that EURUSD could become bearish. Price continues to be indecisive overall though and could continue to move sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0380, 1.0455, 1.0485 and 1.0600.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision. Potential downside?

Price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive but is currently below a recent horizontal channel consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2175 and 1.2320. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.2055 and 1.1970.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Down-trending

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD found resistance around the longer-term moving average.

Price is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. USDCAD is currently in a retrace move and is nearing the channel resistance area. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision – price could become indecisive.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2910, 1.3015 and 1.3070. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing low at 1.2825 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending

USDCHF has reversed off the bearish channel support area, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The USDCHF is currently in a retrace move and is finding resistance around the moving averages. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9600, 0.9625, 0.9675, 0.9690 and 0.9725. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9540 and 0.9505.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecision. Potential upside?

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bullish.

USDJPY has been indecisive for a number of weeks. Price action has just formed a higher swing high though and the moving averages are currently bullish, both suggesting that USDJPY could become bullish. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames but is due a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 133.30, 133.60, 134.30, 134.50, 135.55, 135.95, 136.65 and 137.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market Indecision. Further downside?

Price reversed around the diagonal resistance area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

XAUUSD is overall indecisive but is currently bearish – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside may continue. GOLD is clearly indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1807, 1815, 1822, 1831, 1840, 1845, 1856 and 1858.

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