TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 29, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/27/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-27-2022/

AUDUSD – Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6875-0.6960 and also a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if AUDUSD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6990, 0.7030 and 0.7060. A break to the downside may find support around 0.6860.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market indecision

Price has reversed around the range resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and has been moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8565-0.8640 and price is ranging within the channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8715. A break to the downside could find support around 0.8520 and 0.8490.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The President of the ECB and the Governor of the BOE will speak at 1300 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the range resistance area and is now finding support around the range support area.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. EURUSD is moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel range at 1.0485-1.0600. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The President of the ECB and the Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve and the Governor of the BOE will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDCAD – Potential downtrend?

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Possible bullish move?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecision

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market Indecision

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