TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 27, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/24/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-24-2022/

AUDUSD – Indecision

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. AUDUSD could start ranging between 0.6880 and 0.6950.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6880, 0.6950, 0.6990, 0.7030, 0.7060 and 0.7130.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 1130 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market indecision

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8565, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. EURGBP is currently ranging between 0.8565 and 0.8640.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.8715. A break to the downside may find support around 0.8520 and 0.8490.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed around the range support area.

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and move sideways. Price is ranging between 1.0485 and 1.0595. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.0655 and 1.0740. A break to the downside could find support around 1.0455 and 1.0380.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

Price has been moving sideways and has been finding resistance around 1.2315, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price is ranging and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2175-1.2315. GBPUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2380, 1.2445 and 1.2595. A break to the downside may find support around 1.2055 and 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Potential downtrend?

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD is currently finding support around 1.2870.

Price was up-trending, then indecisive. The USDCAD is now looking bearish. Price action has formed a clear lower swing high and is now forming a lower swing low. Price action has also formed a potential bearish channel. The moving averages are becoming bearish, suggesting that the downside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2910, 1.3010 and 1.3070. The USDCAD could be rejected or reverse around 1.2870 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Possible bullish move?

USDCHF has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending within a tight bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. USDCHF is around a key support area on higher time-frames and is also up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9590, 0.9630, 0.9675, 0.9690, 0.9725 and 0.9810. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the recent lows at 0.9540.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 131.65, 133.30, 133.60, 134.30, 135.35, 135.55 and 136.65.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed off 1819 and 1823.

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between 1822 and 1845.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if XAUUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1856, 1858 and 1877. A break to the downside may find support around 1819 and 1807.

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