TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 23, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/22/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-22-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Possible move lower?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has been indecisive.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. AUDUSD was down-trending but has recently been moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 0.6885 and 0.6945. The moving averages are bearish again though, suggesting that the downtrend could now continue. The AUDUSD is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6885, 0.6945, 0.6990, 0.7030, 0.7060 and 0.7130.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential uptrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed above the consolidation resistance areas and has since been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is above the recent consolidation area and has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, all signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. EURGBP continues to look indecisive on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8600 and 0.8565.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

German manufacturing and services PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential uptrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD has formed a bullish channel, suggesting upside momentum – price could start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the potential upside. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is starting to look indecisive.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around any of the horizontal support levels at 1.0485, 1.0455 and 1.0380. A bullish move could be rejected or revere around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0585, 1.0595, 1.0640, 1.0655 and 1.0740.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

German manufacturing and services PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 140 UTC.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways and has formed a range at 1.2180-1.2315, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2380, 1.2445 and 1.2595. A break to the downside may find support around 1.2055 and 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 140 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Currently indecisive

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in previous chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price is up-trending and is currently in an indecisive retrace move. USDCAD is ranging between 1.2910-1.2985 and has formed a horizontal channel. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal support at 1.2870. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3070.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 140 UTC today.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish.

Price was ranging but is now below the range support area, suggesting a potential downtrend. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the potential downside. The USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9630, 0.9690, 0.9725 and 0.9810. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support and around the recent lows at 0.9560.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 140 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames but is looking overbought, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around any of the horizontal levels at 135.30, 134.55, 133.60 and 133.30. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 136.65.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 140 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is choppy and has been moving sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1807, 1819, 1824, 1845, 1856, 1858, 1873 and 1877.

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