TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 22, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/20/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-20-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Possible move lower?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD was down-trending but has recently been looking indecisive. Price action is currently forming a bearish move, which may be the start of a swing lower. The moving averages continue to signal market indecision though – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6905, 0.6945, 0.6990, 0.7030 and 0.7060.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern and also within a tight horizontal channel at 0.8565-0.8600.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the triangle and horizontal channel and if EURGBP moves out of either consolidation pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around 0.8520, 0.8490 and 0.8720.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around 1.0585 and has been moving sideways.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. EURUSD is ranging between 1.0455 and 1.0585. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.0640 and 1.0655. A break to the downside may find support around 1.0380.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.2180 and 1.2315. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1970, 1.2055, 1.2180, 1.2315, 1.2380 and 1.2445.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish.

The USDCAD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move but is starting to find upside momentum. The moving averages are tight and have crossed, suggesting market indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2910 and 1.2870. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1.2980 and 1.3070.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC.

USDCHF – Ranging

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways and has formed a range, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDCHF is indecisive and has formed a range and horizontal channel at 0.9630-0.9725. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are starting to move sideways. Price is also starting to look indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.9560. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9810 and 0.9890.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bullish.

Price was looking indecisive after a period of strong upside but is now bullish again. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 135.55, 134.55, 133.60 and 133.30.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the diagonal resistance area.

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Recent price action has been bearish, suggesting that XAUUSD could attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1807, 1819, 1844, 1856 and 1858.

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