TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 20, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/17/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-17-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has failed to swing lower and has become indecisive.

Price is choppy and moving sideways – AUDUSD is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6905, 0.7030, 0.7060 and 0.7130.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0000 UTC. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. EURGBP is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8520, 0.8600 and 0.8720.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential uptrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has failed to swing lower.

The EURUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0380, 1.0455, 1.0585, 1.0640 and 1.0655.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has failed to swing lower, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1970, 1.2180, 1.2380, 1.2445 and 1.2470.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and steady. The USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980 and 1.2870. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.3070.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF –Possible range? Potential downtrend?

USDCHF reversed off 0.9730, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is looking indecisive and may start ranging between 0.9630-0.9725. The USDCHF continues to be below key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling a potential move lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9725, 0.9810 and 0.9890. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9630 and 0.9560.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been finding resistance around 135.55.

USDJPY continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames. If the USDJPY closes above 135.55, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 130.95, 131.65, 133.30, 133.60 and 135.55.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle, if price moves out of the triangle (break-out trade) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1807, 1819, 1837, 1856, 1858 and 1873.

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