TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 17, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/16/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-16-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed around the moving averages and failed to swing lower.

AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. Price action has formed a higher swing lower and the moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. AUDUSD may become indecisive.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860, 0.6915, 0.6950, 0.7030, 0.7060, 0.7130, 0.7150 and 0.7160.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP is looking indecisive again. Price is looking quite choppy. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8485, 0.8490, 0.8520, 0.8570, 0.8600 and 0.8720.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the range support area.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. EURUSD is above the recent consolidation area and also above the moving averages, suggesting that price may struggling to swing lower – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0380, 1.0495, 1.0585, 1.0640 and 1.0655.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. The GBPUSD has swung above the recent consolidation area and has formed a large bullish move, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages have crossed bullish, confirming the lack of downside.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1970, 1.2190, 1.2445, 1.2470 and 1.2580.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has found resistance around 1.2975.

The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently at recent highs. Price is starting to look indecisive though and has forming a potential range at 1.2870-1.2980. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the range. If the USDCAD moves above the range resistance area, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The USDCHF was up-trending but has recently been very bearish. Price is below a number of key support levels, signalling that the upside direction is over – the USDCHF could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening. Price is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9715, 0.9730, 0.9810 and 0.9890. A bearish move could find support around 0.9635, 0.9560 and 0.9540.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 129.60, 130.15, 130.50, 130.95, 131.65, 133.30, 133.60, 135.05 and 135.55.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

The chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1245 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

XAUUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1807, 1819, 1835, 1858, 1873 and 1877.

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