TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 16, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/15/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-chart-june-15-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The retrace move has been strong and has swung above both moving averages, suggesting that AUDUSD could struggle to swing lower – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7030, 0.7050, 0.7130 and 0.7150. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965, 0.6915 and 0.6860.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Uptrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The retrace move is large and has almost reverse the recent bullish swing, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are still bullish and steady though, suggesting that EURGBP may attempt to swing higher. The major GBP news today may decide EURGBP’s direction.

Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8585, 0.8570, 0.8560 and 0.8525. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.8715.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The BOE will release a rate statement and a monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC today.

EURUSD – Down-trending. Potential range?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and has been bearish.

The EURUSD is down-trending. Price is currently looking a little indecisive though and has formed a range at 1.0380-1.0495. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are starting to tighten and move sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and if EURUSD moves below the range support area.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. Potential range?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around 1.2190 and around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price action is forming a potential range at 1.1970-1.2190, signalling market indecision. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the potential range resistance area at 1.2190. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the range support area and recent lows at 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The BOE will release a rate statement and a monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bearish and has formed a retrace move. As also suggested, price has reversed off the longer-term moving average and horizontal level at 1.2870.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action is forming a potential range at 1.2870-1.2975, signalling possible market indecision. The moving averages continue to be bullish though, suggesting that the upside could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the range support area at 1.2870 and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs and range resistance area at 1.2975.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. End of the trend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF reversed around 1.0025, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The USDCHF has swung below the recent bullish channel, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are still bullish though.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9930, 0.9890, 0.9810 and 0.9730. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the recent swing high at 1.0025.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The SNB will release a rate statement and announce the official interest rate at 0730 UTC today. This will be followed by a press conference.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been moving sideways.

USDJPY is indecisive after forming a clear uptrend. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 133.30, 133.60, 135.05 and 135.55.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

GOLD is looking indecisive again but is showing some signs of potential downside – XAUUSD is still below the recent consolidation area. The moving averages suggest market indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1807, 1839, 1842 and 1858.

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