TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – June 15, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/14/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-14-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bearish.

AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The major scheduled USD and AUD news may provide new direction to AUDUSD.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6915, 0.6965, 0.7050 and 0.7060. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.6860.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Uptrend

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP has formed a large bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and is possibly breaking key resistance levels on higher time-frames, all suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the trend.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous resistance area at 0.8590. An attempt to swing higher could find resistance around the recent highs at 0.8720.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level.

Price is clearly down-trending. EURUSD is currently in a sideways retrace move and may start ranging between 1.0400 and 1.0475. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.0475 and 1.0640. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the potential range support area at 1.0400.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been very bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2125 and 1.2190. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Time for a retrace move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bullish and has climbed higher.

The USDCAD has formed a large bullish move above key resistance levels, suggesting an uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. Price is looking overextended – USDCAD may be due a bearish retrace move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2870 and 1.2680.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price has formed a bullish channel and the USDCHF is moving within the channel. The moving averages suggest that the upside could continue – they are bullish and steady. The major USD news today could change the market direction.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9980, 0.9890, 0.9810 and 0.9730. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.0025 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Market indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price continues to uptrend. USDJPY is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight, signalling market indecision. The major USD news today could mark the end of the trend.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 133.60, 133.30, 132.95, 132.45 and 130.95. A bullish move may find resistance around 135.05 and 135.55.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC, which is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

XAUUSD – Down-trending?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and is below the recent consolidation area, all signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downtrend. XAUUSD continues to look indecisive on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1830, 1834, 1839, 1842 and 1858. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1807.

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