TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 14, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/13/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-13-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has been very bearish and has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7050, 0.7060 and 0.7095. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8585, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. EURGBP has moved above the diagonal resistance area and the moving averages are currently bullish, suggesting that price may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area as support and around the horizontal levels at 0.8485, 0.8490, 0.8525, 0.8560 and 0.8590.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price was bearish and is now in a bullish retrace move.

The EURUSD is down-trending. Price action has formed a large bearish move and is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Price is clearly down-trending on higher time-frames also.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.0400.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Down-trending?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The GBPUSD has formed a large bearish move, signalling a potential downtrend. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the selling may continue – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2125.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price action has formed a large bullish move. Price is currently struggling to swing above the recent highs at 1.2900, signalling that the USDCAD could now be entering a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. USDCAD could continue to find resistance around 1.2900.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9810, 0.9730 and 0.9715. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.9980.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Possible indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around 133.60 and has since been bullish.

USDJPY is up-trending. Price is starting to look a bit sideways, signalling market indecision. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening. The USDJPY could start ranging, possibly between 133.60 and 135.00. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 133.60, 133.30, 132.95 and 132.45. A bullish move could find resistance around 135.00.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US PPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecisive. Possible downside?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

GOLD continues to look choppy and indecisive but the recent bearish move did close below the recent consolidation and indecision area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages continue to be tight and move sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1830, 1834, 1839, 1842 and 1858. An attempt to swing lower may find support around 1818.

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