TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 13, 2022


Previous analysis…

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been bearish and has been finding support around 0.7005.

AUDUSD is clearly down-trending and is currently in a slight retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also bearish on higher time-frames, adding confidence that AUDUSD may continue to move lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7050, 0.7060, 0.7095, 0.7130 and 0.7150. A bearish move may continue to find support around 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision. Possible downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the diagonal resistance area, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price continues to also form lower swing highs and lows though, suggesting a potential downtrend. Price action is currently forming a descending triangle bearish consolidation pattern. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8485, 0.8490, 0.8515, 0.8565, 0.8575 and 0.8585.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending. Time for a retrace move?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish and has swung lower.

Price was looking a little indecisive but price action has now formed a clear bearish move lower, suggesting a downtrend. The moving averages confirm the trend – they are bearish and widening. EURUSD is looking a little oversold, suggesting a potential retrace move.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.0545, 1.0640 and 1.0655.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price action has formed a large bearish move and has swung below key support levels, all suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the downtrend. GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous bearish channel support and resistance areas.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bullish.

The USDCAD has formed a large bullish move above key resistance levels, signalling a potential uptrend. Price is still climbing higher. The moving averages confirm the uptrend – they are bullish and widening.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2805, 1.2765 and 1.2680. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1.2870.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. The USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the previous bullish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730 and 0.9715.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish.

Price is clearly up-trending. USDJPY is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 134.45, 133.60, 133.30, 132.95 and 132.45.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecisive

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. XAUUSD is choppy. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1830, 1833, 1838, 1842, 1858, 1873 and 1877.

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