TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 10, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/09/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-09-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

Price was indecisive but price action is now suggesting a potential downtrend – AUDUSD is below the recent consolidation and has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the potential downside.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7125, 0.7150, 0.7160 and 0.7235. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7115, 0.7060, 0.7050 and 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision. Possible downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to move in a general sideways direction and be indecisive. Price action has formed lower swing highs and lows though, suggesting a potential downtrend. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price may become bearish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8515, 0.8525, 0.8565, 0.8575 and 0.8585. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8490 and 0.8485.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision. Downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The EURUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive but is now also looking bearish. The moving averages confirm the downside momentum – they are bearish and steady.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0640, 1.0655, 1.0680, 1.0740, 1.0750 and 1.0760. A bearish move could find support around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal level at 1.0545.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been finding support around 1.2480 and has been moving sideways.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is currently moving within a tight bearish channel, suggesting bearish momentum.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2445, 1.2470, 1.2480, 1.2580, 1.2595, 1.2625 and 1.2655.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price was down-trending but has recently been very bullish. USDCAD is forming a large bullish move above key resistance levels, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible trend – they have crossed bullish. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential further upside. The major CAD and USD news today could determine the future direction of this pair.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2680, 1.2615 and 1.2595. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.2765 and 1.2805.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. The USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames. The major USD news today may mark the end of the trend.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9730, 0.9715, 0.9695 and 0.9645. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.9810 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has struggling to swing higher and has been bearish, as suggested in previous analysis.

USDJPY is up-trending. Price is currently in a sideways retrace move. Price is ranging between 133.30 and 134.45. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and steady. USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames also but is looking overbought, signalling a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 133.30, 132.95, 132.45, 130.95 and 130.50. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 134.45.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecisive

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The major CAD and USD news today may provide some trend direction to XAUUSD.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 1830, 1838, 1842, 1858, 1862, 1870 and 1873.

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