TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 03, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/02/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-02-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

AUDUSD continues to clearly up-trend – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price has just formed a new swing high and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7220, 0.7200, 0.7150 and 0.7125. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7265.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential upside

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

EURGBP is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. Price action has been indecisive but is currently bullish and forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the upside direction could continue – they are bullish and widening.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8540, 0.8525, 0.8515 and 0.8495. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 0.8580.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bullish.

Price was showing signs of a potential downtrend but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.0640 and 1.0785. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around 1.0760 and 1.0680. If EURUSD breaks to the downside of the range, price may find support around 1.0605 and 1.0545.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average.

Price has failed to swing lower and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are starting to move sideways. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 1.2470-1.2655 and GBPUSD is moving within the channel.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2445 and 1.2335. Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCAD is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is around a key support area on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2620 and 1.2680. A bearish move lower may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Market indecision

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCHF is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9540-0.9645 and price is moving within the channel. The USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price could become bullish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9695 and 0.9760.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. USDJPY is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 129.60, 128.85 and 128.20. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 130.15.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Potential uptrend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish.

Price was showing signs of a potential downtrend but has recently been bullish. XAUUSD swung above the recent bearish channel and has formed a higher swing high, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages continue to cross, suggesting market indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1865, 1860, 1845 and 1830.

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