TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 02, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/06/01/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-01-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD swung higher and is now finding support around the trend support area.

Price is clearly up-trending. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move. The bearish move has swung below the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7150, 0.7125, 0.7115 and 0.7040. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7200 and 0.7220.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential upside

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price was indecisive but has recently been bullish. EURGBP is above the recent range and has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential trend – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8525, 0.8495, 0.8485 and 0.8455. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8580 and 0.8615.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential downtrend

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The EURUSD has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the downtrend. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0680, 1.0740, 1.0755 and 1.0785. A bearish move could find support around 1.0605, 1.0545 and 1.0460.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Indecision. Potential downside?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

The GBPUSD has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a potential downtrend. Price continues to look a little indecisive though and may possibly start ranging between 1.2470-1.2655. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting potential downside.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2555, 1.2560 and 1.2625. A bearish move may find support around 1.2470, 1.2445 and 1.2335.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Down-trending. Market indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. USDCAD is starting to look indecisive – price could start ranging between 1.2620-1.2680. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around any of the key Fib levels, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765 and 1.2805.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

USDCHF – Market indecision?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCHF continued to move within the bullish channel and found resistance around 0.9640.

Price was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. USDCHF may start ranging between 0.9540 and 0.9645. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price may become bullish. Price action continues to move within the formed bullish channel.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price action has formed a large bullish move, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening. USDJPY is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 129.60, 128.85 and 128.20. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 130.15.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Potential downtrend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD has been bullish.

Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are starting to widen.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1860, 1865 and 1870. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1845, 1830m 1810 and 1795.

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