TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 01, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/31/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-31-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

AUDUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is around a resistance area, suggesting that price may become bearish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.7125, 0.7115, 0.7040 and 0.7005. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high and psychological level at 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is ranging between 0.8485 and 0.8525. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8580 and 0.8615. A break to the downside could find support around 0.8455, 0.8435 and 0.8405.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.

Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. EURUSD may start ranging between 1.0680 and 1.0785. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and is testing a key resistance area, suggesting that EURUSD may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0545, 1.0650, 1.0680, 1.0755 and 1.0785.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD found resistance around the previous bullish channel support area and has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price was up-trending but is currently moving sideways and looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.2555 and 1.2655.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal area also. If GBPUSD breaks to the downside of the range, price could find support around 1.2485 and 1.2445.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Down-trending. Time for a retrace move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is around a key support level on higher time-frames, signalling that the USDCAD may be due a retrace move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2765 and 1.2805.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The BOC will release a rate statement and announce the official interest rate at the same time.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Market indecision?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action has formed a tight bullish channel. Price is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDCHF could start ranging and form a horizontal channel at 0.9540-0.9640.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the support and resistance areas of the potential horizontal channel and if price moves out of either channel (break-out trade). A break higher could find resistance around 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish.

Price action has formed a large bullish move above a number of resistance levels, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the upside trend – they are bullish and widening. The USDJPY is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 128.85, 128.20 and 127.45. A bullish move may find resistance around 129.60 and 130.75.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job opening figures will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Potential downtrend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD has been bearish.

Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are starting to widen.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1835, 1845, 1860 and 1865. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1810 and 1795.

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