TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 31, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/30/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-30-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending. Potential bearish retrace move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a higher swing high. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and widening. Price is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, signalling that AUDUSD could become bearish.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.7125, 0.7115, 0.7040 and 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Market Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the range resistance area, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.8485 and 0.8525. EURGBP is currently testing the range resistance area. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.8580 and 0.8615. A break to the downside may find support around 0.8455 and 0.8435. Trading opportunities could also exist around the diagonal support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The EURUSD is clearly up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace move. EURUSD has swung below the trend support area and below the shorter-term moving average, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the weakening upside – they are moving sideways.

Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.0700, 1.0650 and 1.0605. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0755 and 1.0785.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Indecision. End of the uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off 1.2655 and has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price has closed below the bullish channel support area, suggesting that buying momentum may be weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is currently ranging between 1.2585 and 1.2655.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2555, 1.2485, 1.2445 and 1.2390. Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Down-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. USDCAD seems to be finding support, suggesting a potential swing bottom – price could be due a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765 and 1.2805.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Market indecision?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. USDCHF is currently in a retrace move. Price action is starting to look a little indecisive, suggesting that price may start moving sideways. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the potential market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9540, 0.9640, 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Uptrend? Market indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish.

USDJPY was down-trending but is now potentially up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. USDJPY has failed to swing above the resistance at 128.20, signalling a potential range and horizontal channel at 126.50-128.20. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the USDJPY could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 127.45 and 126.50. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 128.20, 128.85 and 129.60.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

GOLD was up-trending within a bullish channel. Price has recently been moving sideways though and has swung below the bullish channel support area, suggesting that the uptrend is over. XAUUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bullish channel previous support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1810, 1835, 1845, 1865 and 1870.

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