TriumphFX Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 27, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/25/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-25-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher after potential market indecision. The moving averages are bullish but tight, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening. AUDUSD is above the recent consolidation area though, suggesting more potential upside.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.7125, 0.7115, 0.7040 and 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the EURGBP has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. The EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8435, 0.8450, 0.8485, 0.8525, 0.8580 and 0.8615.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending. Potential bearish move?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The EURUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is testing a key resistance area, suggesting potential downside.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0745, 1.0650, 1.0605 and 1.0545.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. GBPUSD is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2485 and 1.2445. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision. Downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

USDCAD is choppy and looks indecisive. Recent price action has formed a lower swing low though, suggesting potential downside. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages continue to be tight, signalling indecision.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2870, 1.2890, 1.2905 and 1.2930. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames and is currently around a key support area, signalling that USDCHF may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9640, 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760. A bearish move may find support around the diagonal support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the downtrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY found support around 126.50, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price has been clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. USDJPY is starting to look a little indecisive and the moving averages are tightening, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price may start ranging between 126.50 and 127.45.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 126.50, 127.45, 128.10, 128.85 and 129.60.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently coming off the channel support area. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1843, 1835 and 1810. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1865, 1870 and 1890.

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