TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 26, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/25/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-25-2022/

AUDUSD – End of the uptrend? Market indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around 0.7040.

AUDUSD has been up-trending. Recent price action has been sideways though. Price has swung below the trend support area, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. AUDUSD may start ranging between 0.7040 and 0.7125.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7005, 0.6950 and 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential upside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP is looking indecisive but has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8435, 0.8450, 0.8500, 0.8525, 0.8580 and 0.8615.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, EURUSD reversed around the trend support area.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. EURUSD has closed below the trend support area, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways – confirming the weakening upside. Price may become bearish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.0625, 1.0605 and 1.0545. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the previous trend support area, around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0705 and 1.0745.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is up-trending. Price action has just formed a swing higher. GBPUSD is moving within a bullish and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2485, 1.2445, 1.2390 and 1.2335. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.2585, 1.2605 and 1.2630.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision. Potential bullish move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2720, 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2870, 1.2885, 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. End of the trend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Price is starting to move sideways, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – the USDCHF may start moving sideways or become bullish.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9665, 0.9695, 0.9760, 0.9830 and 0.9880. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.9585.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the longer-term moving average and the trend resistance area.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. USDJPY is currently in a retrace move but is attempting to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames and is currently testing higher time-frame support, signalling that price may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 127.20, 127.45, 128.10 and 128.85. A bearish move may find support around 126.50.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is finding support around the bullish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. XAUUSD has been moving within a clear bullish channel. The bullish moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting that buying momentum could be weakening – price may struggle to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1835 and 1810. A bullish move could find resistance around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1865 and 1870 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

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