TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 24, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/23/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-23-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 0.7125.

AUDUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. AUDUSD is moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7070, 0.7040, 0.7005 and 0.6950. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7125 and 0.7255.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive. Price is currently moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight, crossing frequently and moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8405, 0.8435, 0.8450, 0.8500, 0.8525 and 0.8580.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

German PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today.

EURUSD – Up-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is clearly up-trending. EURUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0625, 1.0605, 1.0545 and 1.0460. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0695.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

German PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2505, 1.2445, 1.2390 and 1.2335. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2585 and 1.2630.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Down-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is looking a little indecisive and has been indecisive recently, suggesting that the USDCAD may start moving sideways.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2850, 1.2890, 1.2905 and 1.2930. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.2765 and 1.2720.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Price is still up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9695, 0.9760, 0.9830 and 0.9880.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Down-trending. Potential market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY reversed off 128.10 and has been moving sideways.

Price is clearly down-trending but is starting to look indecisive – USDJPY has been moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 127.20 and 128.10. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 128.10, 128.85, 129.60 and 129.85. A bearish move may find support around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the range support area at 127.20.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD reversed around the bullish channel resistance area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

XAUUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1835, 1810 and 1795. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1865, 1870 and 1890 and 1910.

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