TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 23, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/20/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-20-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the trend support area and around the moving averages.

Price is up-trending. AUDUSD is currently forming a swing higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel and price is clearly moving within the channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7070, 0.7040, 0.7005 and 0.6950. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7125 and 0.7255 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision? Possible downside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the range resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis. As also suggested, EURGBP closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

Price was down-trending but then started ranging between 0.8455 and 0.8495. EURGBP is below the recent range support area, suggesting that price may start down-trending again. Price is bearish on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential downside. The EURGBP is still looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are tight – suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8455, 0.8495 and 0.8525. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8405 and 0.8370.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1415 UTC today.

EURUSD – Up-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish.

The EURUSD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0545 and 1.0460. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.0605 and around 1.0625.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2505, 1.2445, 1.2390 and 1.2335. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.2605 and 1.2630.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1415 UTC today.

USDCAD – Market indecision? Possible downside?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows though, suggesting a potential downtrend – price could swing lower. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. If USDCAD closes below 1.2780, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2720, 1.2780, 1.2850, 1.2890, 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Possible bullish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF reversed around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending but is looking a little over-extended – USDCHF may be due a bullish move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a bullish move.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9760, 0.9830, 0.9880 and 0.9920. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.9695.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Down-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the trend resistance area and around the shorter-term moving average.

USDJPY is down-trending. Price is currently in a retrace move. The USDJPY has failed to swing pass the recent low at 127.15, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price could start ranging between 127.15 and 128.10.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 128.10, 128.85, 129.60, 129.85 and 130.45. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows and potential range support at 127.15.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around 1835 and has been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis. As also suggested, price is now finding resistance around 1855.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently forming a higher swing high. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is moving within a bullish channel and is currently testing that channel resistance area, suggesting a potential retrace move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1835 and 1810. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1855, 1870 and 1890.

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