TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – May 17, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/16/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-16-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. AUDUSD has swung above the trend resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they have crossed bullish.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6950 and 0.6880. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.7040 and 0.7125.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC. An Australian price index figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the EURGBP has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURGBP is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8455, 0.8465, 0.8480 and 0.8525. A bearish move may find support around 0.8405 and 0.8370.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The correction has swung above the moving averages and price is looking oversold on higher time-frames, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are currently tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0355, 1.0415, 1.0485 and 1.0590.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – Uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish.

The GBPUSD has been down-trending for months. The recent bullish move has swung above a key resistance level though, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area as support and around the horizontal levels at 1.2390, 1.2265 and 1.2175. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2425, 1.2470 and 1.2605.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – Possible downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

Price action has formed a tight bearish channel and a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the possible trend – they are bearish and widening. USDCAD is indecisive on higher time-frames, signalling potential indecision on the 1 hour time-frame.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2720 and 1.2685.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCHF has finally been bearish.

Price has been up-trending for weeks. The USDCHF is finally showing signs of potential bearish momentum – price has swung below the moving averages. The bullish moving averages are tightening – confirming that upside momentum may be weakening. USDCHF continues to uptrend on higher time-frames though, suggesting that the uptrend on the 1 hour time-frame may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9970, 0.9995 and 1.0055. A bearish move may find support around 0.9970, 0.9880 and 0.9830.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – Indecision. Further downside?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

USDJPY is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between 128.85 and 129.50. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. USDJPY continues to look overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could swing lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 127.10, 127.95, 128.85, 129.50, 129.85, 130.45, 130.75 and 131.25.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1800 UTC.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish.

GOLD is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. XAUUSD has been down-trending for multiple weeks (since mid-April 2022), suggesting that price could be due a bullish move. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1795, 1830, 1855, 1870 and 1890.

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