TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 13, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/12/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-12-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD has broken a key support level on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6920, 0.7040 and 0.7125. A bearish move could find support around 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Potential downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish.

Price was up-trending but recent price action has been bearish – EURGBP has swung below key support levels and below the moving averages. The moving averages have crossed bearish, confirming the potential downside. Price action may form a head and shoulder trend reversal pattern.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area as resistance and around the horizontal levels at 0.8525, 0.8580 and 0.8615. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8465, 0.8440 and 0.8405.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish.

The EURUSD has swung below the recent consolidation area, suggesting that price could start down-trending again. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening. EURUSD is looking very over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0485, 1.0590 and 1.0625. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0355.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. Time for a bullish move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. GBPUSD is testing a key support area on higher time-frames and price is looking very oversold, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2265, 1.2390, 1.2425, 1.2470 and 1.2605. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 1.2175.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price action has formed a bullish channel.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.2905 and 1.2825. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3045 and 1.3075.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF closed above the range resistance area and has swung higher, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending. USDCHF is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Price is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF may be due a large bearish retrace move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the support and around the horizontal levels at 0.9970, 0.9880 and 0.9830. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0045.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision. Further downside?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bearish.

USDJPY is now in a retrace move. Price continues to look a little choppy and indecisive but price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the downtrend – they are bearish and steady.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 129.40, 129.85 and 130.45. A bearish move could find support 127.90 and 127.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

GOLD has been bearish and has swung lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1830, 1855, 1870 and 1890.

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