TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 12, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/11/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-11-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

AUDUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6920, 0.7040, 0.7125 and 0.7170.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the range support area, closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the previous symmetrical triangle and around the horizontal levels at 0.8580, 0.8525 and 0.8465.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision. Clear horizontal channel

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is clearly indecisive and moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are crossing frequently. EURUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.0485-1.0625 and is nearing the range support area.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. Possible upside?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. GBPUSD is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is testing a key support area on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2265, 1.2390, 1.2425 and 1.2470.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average.

The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently nearing the most recent swing high. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.2905 and 1.2825. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1.3045.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 0.9885 and has since been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending but is currently indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. USDCHF is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF could be due a bearish retrace move, which could start with the major USD news today. Price is currently ranging between 0.9880 and 0.9970.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find support around 0.9830 and 0.9715.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecision. Further downside?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY reversed around 130.75 and has been bearish.

Price continues to look indecisive but price action has formed a lower swing high, signalling that start of a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 129.85, 130.45 and 130.75. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 129.40 and 128.75.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD reversed off the trend resistance area and the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price has since been bullish and has swung above the trend resistance area and shorter-term moving averages, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages continue to be bearish though, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1855, 1870, 1890 and 1910. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the previous trend resistance area and around the recent swing low at 1830.

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