TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 11, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/10/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-10-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the recent lows at 0.6920.

Price is below a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling a potential downtrend. The AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7125 and 0.7170. A bearish move could continue to find support around 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Current indecision.

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways and has reversed around 0.8580, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price has formed an uptrend and is currently in a retrace move. The EURGBP is currently indecisive though and has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, as well as a possible range at 0.8515-0.8580. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. A break to the downside of the current consolidation could signal the end of the uptrend.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and also the range and if EURGBP moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.8465, 0.8455, 0.8440 and 0.8405.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.0485-1.0625. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The major USD news today could be the catalyst in driving a consolidation breakout.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Indecisive. Potential upside?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive after forming a long downtrend. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between 1.2265 and 1.2390. GBPUSD is looking very oversold on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2425, 1.2470, 1.2605, 1.2630 and 1.2700.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. USDCAD could retrace further though before attempting to swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2905, 1.2820 and 1.2720. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3045.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been moving sideways.

Price is clearly up-trending but is current indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. USDCHF is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF may be due a bearish retrace move, which could start with the major USD news today. Price may start ranging between 0.9900 and 0.9970 though.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9900, 0.9885 and 0.9830. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse off the recent swing high at 0.9970.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecision. Potential bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. USDJPY is looking overbought on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support and resistance levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 128.75, 129.40, 129.85, 130.45, 130.75 and 131.25.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price closed below 1850 and has since been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1853, 1870, 1890 and 1910. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 1830.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/

Hits: 18